Wembanyama’s 3-Point Trajectory: Why the Tallest Green Light Actually Makes Sense

TL;DR: Rookie Wemby hit ~32–33% on ~5.5 3PA; Year 2 jumped to ~35% on ~8–9 3PA. The weird quirk: he’s been better on pull-up 3s than catch-and-shoots, which is not how 7′4″ is “supposed” to work. Base-case career settles ~36–37%; upside pops to ~38–40% if the standstill footwork catches up.

The Weird (and Wonderful) Wemby Three

The headline isn’t just that he shoots. It’s which threes he shoots.

• Pull-ups (good): He’s unusually comfy off the bounce—step-backs, rhythm dribble into above-the-break looks. In stretches he’s lived around ~40% pull-up, which is wing stuff.
• Catch-and-shoot (lagging but fixable): The stationary, “easy” ones are where his footwork/tempo can drift. That’s the low-hanging fruit for a multi-point bump.
• France context: As a focal point overseas, ~85% of his 3s were contested. NBA spacing gives cleaner looks, but his mechanics still prefer rhythm.

Pull-quote: “Wemby shoots better when the shot is harder. The job now is making the easy ones feel the same.”

Where and how the attempts happen

• Above-the-break heavy. Think nail/top-of-arc and high wings. Corner volume is naturally low for a center who initiates.
• Trail 3s: Early-offense trails are free volume—clean windows without elite passing.
• Pick-and-pop (PnR man): Already viable. As screen angles and hit times sync with the guards, expect a steady lift.
• DHO/Off-screen: Sprinkled in; becomes more relevant if Spurs lean into Lauri/KD-style movement sets.

Defender proximity & shot quality

• Open vs contested: He actually got plenty of open NBA looks—he just didn’t punish them early. The rhythm piece (tiny “ghost dribble” or consistent hop) is the lever.
• Variance warning: When he’s hot from the top, it avalanches. When feet get misaligned, the catch-and-shoot % dips. Normal for ultra-tall shooters.

Year-over-year trend (volume + accuracy)

• Rookie: ~5.5 3PA, ~32–33%.
• Year 2: ~8–9 3PA, ~35%.
• Year 3 early: tiny sample hovering mid-30s. Directionally up.

Pull-quote: “If the catch-and-shoot hits wing-average (36–38%), the gravity goes nuclear.”

Comp cluster (body + playtype)

• Porziņģis: Stretch-5 mechanics; went from ~33% to ~39% by Year 3; career mid/high-30s on volume.
• Lauri Markkanen: 7-footer running semi-movement ABT (above-the-break) threes; near ~39% in his leap.
• Karl-Anthony Towns (ceiling template): multiple seasons ≥41% 3PT; shows how elite centers can keep high % on volume.
• (KD is more wing than 5, but useful as a “tall pull-up shooter” arc.)

Forecast ranges

• Base case (most likely): 36–37% career on high ABT volume; pull-up remains a strength; catch-and-shoot normalizes.
• Ceiling: 38–40% if standstill cadence locks in and guard table-setting improves.
• Floor: 34–35% if C&S never fully stabilizes (still warps space because…7′4″).

What moves the needle fastest

1. Repeatable C&S footwork: same base, less drift.
2. More “laces-up” reps from advantage creators: earlier, cleaner windows.
3. Trim the late-clock 28-footers: keep the pull-ups that punish drop.

Big picture

Even mid-30s on volume forces defenses to pick a poison: close hard and give drives/lobs, or live with a 7′4″ ABT jumper that keeps creeping up in accuracy. If he parks in 36–38% land while maintaining volume, we’re in KAT-adjacent impact territory—plus elite rim protection. Videogame build.

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Notes & sources to link when publishing

• Season splits & attempts (ESPN / Basketball-Reference player pages).
• Pull-up vs catch-and-shoot write-ups (CBS Sports, Ringer, local Spurs analysis).
• Synergy-style playtype notes (pick-and-pop, spot-up).
• Comps: Porziņģis, Markkanen, KAT season lines.